On the one hand, high debt is overwhelming, and on the other, the overall market is down. The chill over the photovoltaic industry is further intensifying. On August 7, the latest set of data released by the US investment agency MaximGroup showed that the cumulative debt of the 10 largest photovoltaic companies in China has reached 17.5 billion US dollars, or about 111 billion yuan. This is tantamount to worsening the situation for the Chinese photovoltaic industry, which has frequently encountered a series of "dual reverse" investigations in Europe and the United States recently.
In order to rebuild the confidence of the photovoltaic industry, on August 7, the Chinese government raised the domestic long-term photovoltaic installed capacity target for 2020 from the previous 20GW to 50GW. However, the combined effects of the dual factors of global overcapacity and the rise of international trade protectionism temporarily ended the era of rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in recent years. Faced with unprecedented difficulties, China's photovoltaic industry has entered a period of in-depth industry adjustment.
The development status of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year
For my country's photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2012, it can be said to be struggling both inside and outside. After the explosive development of the photovoltaic industry in the past few years, since 2011, the development of the global photovoltaic industry has taken a sharp turn. Many photovoltaic companies in the United States, Germany and other countries have closed down or sought bankruptcy protection. The Chinese photovoltaic industry cannot be left alone, losing money, reducing production, Discontinued production has become a common term for industry development.
Statistics show that due to weak demand, plummeting prices, and high inventories, 80% of my country’s photovoltaic listed companies are expected to decline in performance in the first half of this year, their short-term loan repayment capabilities will continue to weaken, and credit risks will gradually be exposed. From the perspective of A-share listed companies in the photovoltaic industry that have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2012, nearly 80% of their performance is expected to decrease, and photovoltaic giants listed abroad have also experienced overall losses. Among them, Suntech lost US$185 million, Suntech lost US$133 million, and Jinko New Energy lost US$56.6 million.
Internal factors, under the background that the capacity expansion rate is faster than the market growth rate, the price of photovoltaic products has fallen sharply, and the pressure on business operations has increased sharply. From January to June 2012, the price of polysilicon has dropped from US$30.5/kg to US$23.6/kg, a decline of 22.6%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin of various photovoltaic companies has fallen sharply. According to media reports, the domestic photovoltaic market has nearly 10GW of power-generating components overstocked in snow. If installed, it can generate 100 million kWh every three days without any fuel. While China's photovoltaic cell and module shipments exceed more than 50% of the world, but the installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants is less than 5% of the world.
External factors have intensified international trade protectionism. On March 21, 2012, the US Department of Commerce announced its preliminary ruling on the punitive collection of countervailing duties for Chinese photovoltaic companies. According to the statement, the minimum countervailing tax rate is 2.90% and the maximum is 4.73%. On May 18, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary review of the anti-dumping results of Chinese solar cells and modules, and imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 31% to 250%. On July 24, the German SolarWorld company once again attacked China's photovoltaic industry and filed a formal application with the European Commission to initiate an anti-dumping investigation against polysilicon photovoltaic cell products from China. The production of Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers has stagnated. Although some manufacturers still maintain reasonable production levels, most polysilicon producers have stopped production, and the average operating rate of Chinese polysilicon manufacturers in the second quarter of 2012 has fallen below half.
The overall outlook is promising
In order to implement the "Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan (2011-2015)", "The Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of the Information Industry" and the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry" and promote the sustainable development of the solar photovoltaic industry, The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formulated the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the Solar Photovoltaic Industry."
In the context of a sharp decline in exports, in order to restore confidence in the photovoltaic industry and solve China’s huge demand for electricity, the Chinese government has raised its domestic photovoltaic installation targets. In the fierce international market competition, overcapacity and falling prices have put tremendous pressure on Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers. On August 7, the Chinese government raised the domestic long-term photovoltaic installed capacity target for 2020 from the previous 20GW to 50GW. With the withdrawal of China's feed-in tariff subsidy program, the government has sent a clear signal of support to the photovoltaic industry. As long as China maintains the current photovoltaic installation speed in China, China can accomplish this positive goal.
At present, my country’s solar power installed capacity is only about 2 million kilowatts, and my country’s original target for solar power generation in 2015 was only 10 million kilowatts. At one time, it was reported that it would be increased to 15 million kilowatts, and this plan eventually targets 21 million kilowatts. kilowatt. According to industry experts, photovoltaic installed capacity will grow rapidly in the second half of 2012, and the installed capacity will exceed 10GW in the next two years.
According to Liang Zhipeng, a relevant person from the National Energy Administration, photovoltaics are one of the most widely applicable sources of new energy; now the price of solar power in China is 1 yuan/kWh. If photovoltaic power generation reaches the level of 0.6 yuan/kWh, my country will be able to provide photovoltaic power. Power generation provides a market as broad as wind power. It is believed that in the next three years, solar power will be economically priced and will have large-scale applications in industry, commerce, and residents’ lives. This is undoubtedly an exciting news for the photovoltaic industry.